EU vote

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jpf		EU vote	02-06-2016 @ 09:31
Member 5010, 5 posts SQ 175, BP 130, DL 170 475.0 kgs @ 85kgs UnEq	Nimble said: It fails before it even begins! The EU is not about pooling money and resources. The EU budget is tiny compared with national budgets. It's primarily about about making a large market (although it has grown beyond that), and building the regulatory framework necessary to facilitate that... something that in no way resembles a bunch of families setting up a gym together. The EU is about much more than that but pooling resources is still an important factor even if it is not obvious. We are represented at the EU level in World Trade Organisation meetings and we're negotiating a free trade deal with the US. Being so big and wealthy (by world standards) gives us clout. Also note that many health and safety regulations satisfy EU standards and you can think of pooling. If the Chinese want to sell us toys they only need to satisfy one set of rules rather than 28. This benefits everyone and of course we could just get out and a) buy toys with Chinese standards or b) create our own separate standards but that will increase costs. The same applies to pharmaceuticals and just about any other industry. For an easyish read on how economists criticise each other using research see http://voxeu.org/article/how-economists-brexit-manage-defy-law...

Rick		...	02-06-2016 @ 09:33
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10035 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235 595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator	aaron_lohan said:Some economists say we are better off in the EU, however these are being paid by the government who want us to stay in. As far as I can tell, the position of economists on the EU is rather like that of climate scientists on anthropogenic global warming - there are one or two who are against, and the media like to push them in the interests of their proprietors, but a massive working majority are in favour. To believe we'd be clearly better off out you have to assume that almost all economists have been bribed. Not that that matters, really, and if course money isn't everything. This has become an emotional argument. The interesting thing is that a clear majority of those eligible to vote want to stay in, but they're less passionate - so it may be that a majority of those LIKELY to vote want to leave.

little_a		...	02-06-2016 @ 09:33
still a devious weightlifting bastard Member 43, 14374 posts	Nimble said:Japan has been peaceful over that time period. Japan has been a member of the coalition in both the Iraq war 2003-2011 and operation Ocean Shield since 2009 – ongoing Nimble said:China might be "well, China", (whatever you mean by that?!) but it has been peaceful since 1949 (as far as wars are concerned), discounting minor spats with Vietnam and India. Between 1958 and 1962 Mao’s ‘great leap forward’ resulted in 10’s of millions were either killed or starved to death. Are you suggested that this happened peacefully? Nimble said:India, likewise, has been peaceful by any meaningful definition. Again, it's so-called wars over that time period were really skirmishes resulting in at most a few thousand deaths -- not nearly as bloody as The Troubles, measured on a per-capita basis. Indo-Pakistani wars of 1947, 1965, 1971,1999 Nimble said:Between Japan, China and India you already have enough people to justify my claim that "much of Asia" has been peaceful. Clearly I don't think all or most of Asia was peaceful. Pakistan and Afghanistan are obvious examples. To say that 10’s of millions of people dying through conflict or anthropogenic disasters is still peaceful because you can offset it against several billions is silly. Nimble said:Why bring up Iraq and Iran? I didn't mention the Middle East. No, you said Asia. Iran and Iraq are in Asia Nimble said:The "break up of the USSR" is a different question. We're talking about war. Besides, it was, all told, remarkable peaceful. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_conflicts I’m not arguing about the effect on the EU or no EU has had on global peace/ war/ famine, I’m simply replying to your comment of… Nimble said:even countries like Russia, China, as well as much of Asia, etc. have all been peaceful since WWII. … with “No they haven’t”

ChrisMcCarthy		...	02-06-2016 @ 09:37
Lost his pen, then found his pen. #phew Member 4899, 2956 posts	Rick said: As far as I can tell, the position of economists on the EU is rather like that of climate scientists on anthropogenic global warming - there are one or two who are against, and the media like to push them in the interests of their proprietors, but a massive working majority are in favour. To believe we'd be clearly better off out you have to assume that almost all economists have been bribed. Not that that matters, really, and if course money isn't everything. This has become an emotional argument. The interesting thing is that a clear majority of those eligible to vote want to stay in, but they're less passionate - so it may be that a majority of those LIKELY to vote want to leave. Yes, I've seen it mentioned that the so-called "Grey" vote are the people most likely to actually turn up and vote and so will be disproportionately influential - but then when wasn't that the case?

jpf		EU	02-06-2016 @ 09:38
Member 5010, 5 posts SQ 175, BP 130, DL 170 475.0 kgs @ 85kgs UnEq	Fatpete said: Then why do Norway and Switzerland have it ? There must be a difference between their free trade agreement and the others. Otherwise it becomes inexplicable. The reason is rather simple. Many countries negotiate free trade agreements with each other and this is in terms of goods and services so that there is no free movement of labour; the EU-US proposed agreement falls in this category. However, to join the EU free trade area (all EU members are in it but it also includes Iceland, Norway, Switzerland) these countries have to accept free movement of labour and they have to pay a hefty annual fee as well. There's been a recent spat with Switzerland as they were trying to block Croatians from exercising free movement there and the EU was threatening with severe retaliation.

ChrisMcCarthy		...	02-06-2016 @ 09:40
Lost his pen, then found his pen. #phew Member 4899, 2956 posts	Yeah, I don't know if you could call some of the particularly savage conflicts between the ex-Soviet states particularly peaceful - a lot of terrorism involved as well.

Nimble		...	02-06-2016 @ 11:45
woefully weak Member 4748, 1506 posts SQ 157, BP 133, DL 260 550.0 kgs @ 104kgs UnEq	little_a said: … with “No they haven’t” Ok, actually we are basically in agreement then. According to your definition of peace (which is as valid -- perhaps better! -- than mine or that of the lecturer I was initially referring to), the EU hasn't been peaceful over that time period. According to mine, it has, but so has "much of Asia". I suppose I think of west of Iran's eastern border as Middle-East not Asia, but I don't know if that's common. Re. India see my comment about per-capita deaths and the size of those conflicts vs. The Troubles, for e.g


little_a		...	02-06-2016 @ 12:49
still a devious weightlifting bastard Member 43, 14374 posts	Nimble said: Ok, actually we are basically in agreement then. This reminds me of Rocky's speech at the end of Rocky 4. "If you can change, and I can change, everybody can change" You've made my day Nimbly mate. Agreements are better than divisions for sure.

Cuddles		...	06-06-2016 @ 10:52
Eat.Cycle.Sleep.Win Member 2, 12511 posts SQ 190, BP 150, DL 280 620.0 kgs @ 99kgs UnEq Administrator	Rick said: As far as I can tell, the position of economists on the EU is rather like that of climate scientists on anthropogenic global warming - there are one or two who are against, and the media like to push them in the interests of their proprietors, but a massive working majority are in favour. To believe we'd be clearly better off out you have to assume that almost all economists have been bribed. Not that that matters, really, and if course money isn't everything. This has become an emotional argument. The interesting thing is that a clear majority of those eligible to vote want to stay in, but they're less passionate - so it may be that a majority of those LIKELY to vote want to leave. I was discussing this with a politics lecturer from Queen Mary's recently who specialises in electoral voting. His view is that it'll be a more convincing win for the remain camp than most believe, citing a similar concept to the 'hidden tories'. (He predicted to me a month before the '15 General Election that Cameron would win a majority, when very few people would admit that in public). Plenty of undecided voters will fall on their naturally risk averse nature and vote for what they know rather than the alternative. Much like many of the 'undecided' vote leading up to the General Election fell towards the Tory government that they knew). I agree with you on the economics of the argument. Unfortunately much of the good economic debate has been ignored in light of the bulls**t that most sides are spouting while attempting to make their case. The obsession with trying to attach numbers to the arguments actually undermines them, given that the public are rightly sceptical of the numbers. Osbourne didn't help with his 'formula' and the £4,300 figure.

dannyboy73		...	06-06-2016 @ 16:38
Mask it or Casket !! Member 4600, 8166 posts SQ 240, BP 162.5, DL 255 657.5 kgs @ 90.5kgs UnEq	out votes now sent off... first time i bothered to vote in 20 years.

baldt		...	07-06-2016 @ 01:53
Member 1589, 1219 posts SQ 300, BP 260, DL 345 905.0 kgs @ 108kgs Eq	luki said: SNP economics are in disarray after the oil price collapsed 60%. They will have a much tougher time convincing people Scotland can pay for itself in any further leave campaign. Scotland always has a s**tty issue with chasing the boom and this is a prime example. It generally takes far too long for the Scots, who are generally a miserable, chicken licken, dont like change much bunch to take any proactive approach. They should have gone independent in the 1979 referendum which would have allowed them to profit from the oil boom. They didn't and now they're scrabbling about chasing a resource that's dwindling and in massive over supply. The UK will probably leave the EU, Northern Ireland will probably leave the UK and Scotland, because of its stupidity didnt see this coming. If it had it could have taken a bit of proactive measures that would/could have made it the new Celtic Tiger, it could have attracted wealthy chaps by lowering income tax etc etc. but its Scotland, we hate the wealthy etc etc If Scotland had left the UK, joined the EU as a separate country (and it would have) then it could have pinched a pretty large amount of the head offices of every fund manager to allow them to passport out of an EU country. At the moment Dublin will probably prosper from the UK leaving. Scotland will leave it too late again should we vote for BREXIT As far as the city goes, its a mixed bag, hedge funds and boutiques would prefer BREXIT, the banks wouldnt although leaving would allow them to pay uncapped bonuses. This isnt a decision the minions should take, its one thing deciding on a colour to paint your new living room, its a bit different if you start giving advice on building the bloody house to the architects and engineers that are qualified to do it.

dannyboy73		...	17-06-2016 @ 20:47
Mask it or Casket !! Member 4600, 8166 posts SQ 240, BP 162.5, DL 255 657.5 kgs @ 90.5kgs UnEq	Post Edited: 17.06.2016 @ 20:48 PM by dannyboy73 lol independace day advert...being released 23rd June...Vote day! and the advert shows a white building with a red cross...what a subliminal! Anyone else loaled at this???

John		...	17-06-2016 @ 22:51
#biggef Member 5263, 3492 posts SQ 260, BP 195, DL 260 715.0 kgs @ 130kgs UnEq	Can't help feeling Osbourne is actually threatening britexiters by saying he will cut public spending more and higher tax did mention that at the start .funny though as Cameron didn't mention any of that when he talked about leaving before his .I think people will vote on how they personally feel as that's about the best information us avarage Joes have really.I feel that we have little control over our boarders and desicions are made by people we havnt even heard of on top of all that I really don't like how the stay campaign has been worked.no founding from the government to actually fairly give information on both sides instead on foundinng the stay side and then the threats and scare tactics I'm defo out for sure.

Rick		...	17-06-2016 @ 23:29
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10035 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235 595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator	There's been some fascinating polling recently. The younger, better educated, more successful, and more interested in politics you are, the more likely you are to vote remain. The correlation's hugely positive. Generally, remain voters are concerned about a wide range of issues, and generally trust expert opinion. Leave voters are really only interested in immigration, and maybe sovereignty (though that's not actually particularly meaningful given all of our treaty obligations), and they don't trust ANYBODY. (This isn't me, as somebody who wants us not to leave, casting aspersions: this is what the polls say very clearly and unambiguously, in the words of the voters themselves.) So we may very well end up, on the basis of nonsensical fears about being "swamped" and "faceless bureaucrats", voting for something that essentially every credible analyst thinks will be catastrophic in the short term and deeply bad in the long term. You have to believe some deeply implausible things about how we'd negotiate post-exit trade deals not to. We'd be in recession, and deep austerity, for a decade; again, no remotely plausible economic model denies that. Best case is we follow the Norway model and end up with LESS border control, paying just as much (no rebate), and no actual vote, to access our major market for services (recall we don't make goods any more...). And that's before you get into the fact that, whether or not that's what you mean, a vote for leave is essentially an endorsement of the deeply racist and profoundly right-wing forces that have driven that campaign for the last twenty years. But it is what it is. You can't really have rational arguments with people who simply aren't making their decisions on that basis. Still, it's looking close. We may yet dodge this bullet.

Wiegieboard		...	18-06-2016 @ 00:00
as crimson as my last victims underclothing..... Member 899, 11330 posts SQ 180, BP 132.5, DL 190 502.5 kgs @ 118kgs UnEq	Not all leave voters are racists but all racists will vote leave.

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