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freedom of information request from the office of national statistics
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This thread has been closed by a moderator. Replies are no longer possible.| dannyboy73 |  | ... | 05-02-2022 @ 18:31 |
Mask it or Casket !! Member 4600, 8166 posts SQ 240, BP 162.5, DL 255657.5 kgs @ 90.5kgs UnEq | Post Edited: 05.02.2022 @ 18:32 PM by dannyboy73 A plastic Cliff would make a great scarecrow in my garden...Genuinly, I hope your feeling alright Rick, i had the Delta, was not nice. I will say though, get fluids even if you dont want them. Im convinced, we got over Delta quickly because of keeping hydrated and pestering each other with cups of tea and water... Rick said: * or perhaps "Cliff Richards are"? More plausible on sheer workload grounds, and if anybody's got a clone it's him, the creepy plastic f**ker. | ||
| EDCLARKE | | ... | 05-02-2022 @ 19:48 |
 not particularly well educated Member 85, 10991 posts SQ 170, BP 130, DL 260560.0 kgs @ 90kgs UnEq | Hope you have a swift recovery Rick . I've got some Ivermectin if you want me to post you some  | ||
| billynomates |  | ... | 05-02-2022 @ 19:48 |
Member 4923, 1795 posts | dannyboy73 said:Hey Billy, Sorry to respond like a lune. Its just that 2 years in and Im bloody sick of it to the point where I wont tip toe anymore. But, I guess we all have had more than enough. Sorry Billy. No need to apologise Danny, we're all grown ups here I'm sorry for calling your considerateness into question, because covid matters aside you seem like a really decent chap.Whatever about Cliff Richard, many covid patients who have lost their sense of taste have reported listening to a lot of Michael Bolton. | ||
| Nimble | | ... | 06-02-2022 @ 01:38 |
 woefully weak Member 4748, 1506 posts SQ 157, BP 133, DL 260550.0 kgs @ 104kgs UnEq | Rick said:It's very easy to calculate excess death figures historically, although actuaries and epidemiologists have worked with them *all the time* for *decades*. It's literally just this year's death rate minus the average of the death rates for the last five years - though we are currently excluding 2020. because it's such a huge outlier. Calculating a population-adjusted figure (to take account of aging) is much harder, but again, actuaries do this all the time. In fact, that's basically what they're for. Suffice it to say that the people who work in this field have a very clear understanding of what typical figures look like! Typically, the age-adjusted figures are somewhat negative (i.e. fewer than zero excess deaths), and the raw ones are not far off flat, from what I read. 2020 is a massive outlier. Here's an informal review of some of the problems with that preprint: http://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1488993038915489794 They are indeed qualified to do it, though they do seem to have done it very badly indeed. They've heavily weighted a few conspicuously low quality studies, their methodology doesn't meet their claims, etc. NB: I am not qualified to assess or even properly explain these issues, despite being a PhD mathematician (not in statistics) who teaches A level statistics. This stuff is not easy, and it's very easy to be misled if you aren't an expert. Which none of us are. According to the Government's own website their excess deaths methodology uses a "statistical model" to predict the baseline (which they haven't published AFAIK), and their figures disagree with the traditional approach (population adjusted) by ~5%. That's what led me to believe it's a new model, though i could be wrong — perhaps the new model is only applied to the demographic breakdown element, which, at a national level, is a new (and worthwhile) expansion of the approach. Using the traditional approach, you'd still notice that it's not uncommon to have excess deaths in years past, e.g ~20k in 2015 (~1/3 of 2020, and which of course didn't go unnoticed). But how good/useful a measure is it? That's up for debate. Thanks for the twitter thread, the criticisms seems valid. In my defence, I was merely pointing out that the authors' specializations and the lack of peer review alone doesn't discredit the paper. You'll notice my conclusions (which in any case made no reference to this paper) are different from theirs, too. I only said *late* lockdowns don't work. I think it's very clear early/preemptive ones do (presuming metric of success is mortality), but that boat sailed a LONG time ago for the UK. Your final paragraph touches on perhaps my biggest issue: "I am not qualified to assess..." — does this not set a very dangerous precedent? "Sorry, Mr. mathematics PhD, your life is going to be turned upside down, and you're not qualified to understand why..." I'm not at your level with statistics I'm sure but have a masters from a world top 100 uni in political/social science (and remain academically interested in a broad range of subjects — i tend to go right to the source rather than reading news) so am able to read papers with an expectation of at least some level of informed comprehension. I personally would not be happy with anybody making radical changes to my life and simply, then, having to accept that I'm unqualified to give an opinion on whether or not they should. Do you disagree? Sometimes tone is hard to communicate over the internet... especially with stream-of-conciousness type replies like this. But I hope you (all) can tell this is all good faith, genuinely curious discourse, and also well-intentioned. I'm not personally interested in "freedom" in the American sense for it's own sake, just want people to do and be well. As I think we all do. | ||
| dannyboy73 | | ... | 06-02-2022 @ 11:07 |
Mask it or Casket !! Member 4600, 8166 posts SQ 240, BP 162.5, DL 255657.5 kgs @ 90.5kgs UnEq | Post Edited: 06.02.2022 @ 13:07 PM by dannyboy73 This.Often, throughout the past 2 years we have been asked to do things by scientist and politicians not on the basis of hard evidence but because they 'feel like the right thing to do'. You have to try better than that to nudge me. like yourself, I am educated in the social sciences, specifically psychology. This may explain why I look closely at the data presented and focus in on the nudge. Also, total lack of critical challenge within the ,mainstream media when the scientist get it wrong. E.g 2-5k will die daily from Omricon without lockdown (or is it just lazy reporting?). I am also lucky enough to be married to a scientist who is pointing out the errors in the 'science' to me daily. i know its fustrating Nimble, I went to Tesco last night and most people were wearing masks (mainly cloth so useless according to German law, and I would argue that masks were always just part of behavioural psychology). I just wanted to shake everyone in Tesco and shout wake up at the top of my voice. Instead, I came home with the hump and wondering what it will take until people are no longer living in fear and fear of upsetting others regardless of the changing data emerging. I cannot see most people reacting well to reports that lockdowns, masks (and the thing that could get the thread shutdown) did not reduced spread and caused far many more harms. Esspecially to children who have been used as sandbags to protect the adults. This part sticks in my throat. I do understand though that some still want further and tougher restriction like those comparable to Australia and Austria. Hard for me to get my head around but I understand that this is some peoples perspective. Nimble said: I personally would not be happy with anybody making radical changes to my life and simply, then, having to accept that I'm unqualified to give an opinion on whether or not they should. Do you disagree? . | ||
| Wayne_Cowdrey | | ... | 06-02-2022 @ 11:54 |
 Still got a little bit of strength Member 400, 22063 posts | Post Edited: 06.02.2022 @ 12:19 PM by Wayne_Cowdrey I see mask wearing as a very visual thing that denotes 'threat' and feeds into group fear. People are going to struggle to let go. My 'feeling' is that fabric masks do little to nothing, but no, I'm not an expert. | ||
| dannyboy73 | | ... | 06-02-2022 @ 13:18 |
Mask it or Casket !! Member 4600, 8166 posts SQ 240, BP 162.5, DL 255657.5 kgs @ 90.5kgs UnEq | According to the BBC, yes the BBC... mask wearing to stop the spread of vid is inconclusive. 2 years to late but here you go: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59895934 This is what I mean by the data changing but people refusing to return to 'normal'. Wayne_Cowdrey said:I see mask wearing as a very visual thing that denotes 'threat' and feeds into group fear. People are going to struggle to let go. My 'feeling' is that fabric masks do little to nothing, but no, I'm not an expert. | ||
| EDCLARKE | | ... | 06-02-2022 @ 18:06 |
not particularly well educated Member 85, 10991 posts SQ 170, BP 130, DL 260560.0 kgs @ 90kgs UnEq | i came to the conclusion masks were highly unlikely to have much of an impact when i watched my son smoke a fag whilst still wearing his . Having worked as carpenter all my life anything short of a mask with a respirator valve does very little even when you are cutting something with very fine dust such as mdf and absolutely f**k all if you are spraying lacquers or paints. I had the misfortune of having to wear an old n95 mask that i'd found under the seat of the van round the supermarket once as i'd forgotten to bring a mask with me , I was struggling for breath and felt like absolute s**t by the time i'd finish and got outside . | ||
| luki | | ... | 07-02-2022 @ 09:54 |
Avatar Member 5517, 1538 posts SQ 160, BP 165, DL 201526.0 kgs @ 110kgs UnEq | Did you watch Canada Russia trying to play ice hockey in the winter Olympics with a kn95 mask yesterday?) If they can do it everyone should be able to manage a loop of Aldi. | ||
| Rick | | ... | 07-02-2022 @ 10:56 |
 I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10035 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | Nimble said: Your final paragraph touches on perhaps my biggest issue: "I am not qualified to assess..." — does this not set a very dangerous precedent? "Sorry, Mr. mathematics PhD, your life is going to be turned upside down, and you're not qualified to understand why..." I'm not at your level with statistics I'm sure but have a masters from a world top 100 uni in political/social science (and remain academically interested in a broad range of subjects — i tend to go right to the source rather than reading news) so am able to read papers with an expectation of at least some level of informed comprehension. I personally would not be happy with anybody making radical changes to my life and simply, then, having to accept that I'm unqualified to give an opinion on whether or not they should. Do you disagree? You're absolutely entitled to an opinion, but not to have anybody take it seriously. I'm sorry if that sounds flip, but it's simply the truth. The new highway code is a great example of this, actually - being widely condemned for rage-clicks by people who know absolutely nothing about the complicated, technical, and data-driven issues of road safety (and usually, judging by their commentary, who haven't actually opened a Highway Code since they passed their own test decades ago). As Isaac Asimov wrote a very long time ago, "your ignorance is not worth as much as my knowledge". These are very complicated and counterintuitive issues, heavily muddied by people pushing agendas that are political rather than scientific - anti-masking rhetoric has become a front in the culture war, most obviously. So, no, I can't tell a good paper from a well-written bad paper, and neither can you. That makes my opinion on them less than useful, and so I have to turn to experts, otherwise we risk being led astray by convincing but dishonest people telling us what we want to hear. I know it's depressing. But we can comfort ourselves with the rarity of this: in most big issues, the science is much simpler, or at least less controversial, and we all know largely what we ought to do. It's just, still, we often seem not to. | ||
| EDCLARKE | | ... | 08-02-2022 @ 20:19 |
not particularly well educated Member 85, 10991 posts SQ 170, BP 130, DL 260560.0 kgs @ 90kgs UnEq | luki said:Did you watch Canada Russia trying to play ice hockey in the winter Olympics with a kn95 mask yesterday?) If they can do it everyone should be able to manage a loop of Aldi. you may well be right i may just be an unfit old ex smoker , give it a go and see how you get on . | ||
| Nimble | | ... | 09-02-2022 @ 08:11 |
woefully weak Member 4748, 1506 posts SQ 157, BP 133, DL 260550.0 kgs @ 104kgs UnEq | Rick said: You're absolutely entitled to an opinion, but not to have anybody take it seriously. I'm sorry if that sounds flip, but it's simply the truth. The new highway code is a great example of this, actually - being widely condemned for rage-clicks by people who know absolutely nothing about the complicated, technical, and data-driven issues of road safety (and usually, judging by their commentary, who haven't actually opened a Highway Code since they passed their own test decades ago). As Isaac Asimov wrote a very long time ago, "your ignorance is not worth as much as my knowledge". These are very complicated and counterintuitive issues, heavily muddied by people pushing agendas that are political rather than scientific - anti-masking rhetoric has become a front in the culture war, most obviously. So, no, I can't tell a good paper from a well-written bad paper, and neither can you. That makes my opinion on them less than useful, and so I have to turn to experts, otherwise we risk being led astray by convincing but dishonest people telling us what we want to hear. I know it's depressing. But we can comfort ourselves with the rarity of this: in most big issues, the science is much simpler, or at least less controversial, and we all know largely what we ought to do. It's just, still, we often seem not to. I’m honestly amazed that someone as clearly intelligent and well-intentioned as you can hold this position. Our disagreement is so profound I’d have to write an essay in response… would such an endeavour be worthwhile? Or would it achieve nothing but making me feel upset? What do you think? Thank God I’m not in politics. | ||
| macroth | | ... | 09-02-2022 @ 08:54 |
 no longer the Swiss Deadlift record holder Member 3517, 3368 posts SQ 182.5, BP 122.5, DL 255560.0 kgs @ 90kgs UnEq | Nimble said: I’m honestly amazed that someone as clearly intelligent and well-intentioned as you can hold this position. Our disagreement is so profound I’d have to write an essay in response… would such an endeavour be worthwhile? Or would it achieve nothing but making me feel upset? What do you think? Thank God I’m not in politics. I for one would be interested in knowing what exactly you disagree with. I have a lot of questions that I've typed up and erased, and they boil down to this: you (we, others) have an opinion; now what? | ||
| LessThanLuke | | ... | 09-02-2022 @ 14:25 |
 his poor male ego must be crushed Member 883, 6251 posts SQ 290, BP 180, DL 420890.0 kgs @ 105kgs UnEq | macroth said: I for one would be interested in knowing what exactly you disagree with. I have a lot of questions that I've typed up and erased, and they boil down to this: you (we, others) have an opinion; now what? It doesn't really matter what his disagreements are. Rick will just say "you're wrong" in a condescending manor and that's the end of convo | ||
| macroth | | ... | 09-02-2022 @ 14:30 |
no longer the Swiss Deadlift record holder Member 3517, 3368 posts SQ 182.5, BP 122.5, DL 255560.0 kgs @ 90kgs UnEq | LessThanLuke said: It doesn't really matter what his disagreements are. Rick will just say "you're wrong" in a condescending manor and that's the end of convo That's not really my point. Let's assume that Rick concedes that Nimble is qualified to give his opinion on that study and on Covid policy in general. My question remains: now what? | ||