coronavirus
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| Rick |  | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 20:01 |
 I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10034 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | That said, we completely should not be where we are. We should have locked down hard at the start and not unlocked until prevalence was near zero (probably only a few more weeks), with aggressive track trace and isolate. The places that did this have had much less time in lockdown and much better outcomes in every way So you're half right. The UK's response has been s**t and damaging. I can't agree with your apparent prescription, though. | ||
| Ham |  | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 20:10 |
Ham but hey Member 4787, 205 posts | Thanks Rick. I do appreciate your continued view point as I do the likes of Willisans. From my perspective the lockdown has near on destroyed my main business and possibly will never recover so of course I think the lockdown is insane especially with evidence elsewhere in the world showing it was neither warranted nor advised. I get the stress on the NHS but imagine if the billions if not trillions lost was spent on actually investing in the NHS especially as we are told this will happen again and more frequently in the future, add to that an ever growing population and expanding the health care facilities and staff is the only sensible solution IMO. | ||
| Rick | | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 20:15 |
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10034 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | I agree with everything in that post apart from your assertion that evidence elsewhere in the world argues against lockdown as an emergency control measure. | ||
| WILLSAN | | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 20:17 |
 Trump will get another four years Member 126, 16707 posts SQ 160, BP 110, DL 225495.0 kgs @ 75kgs UnEq | you are making the presumption that lockdowns work when there are studies coming out fairly regularly pointing to the opposite conclusion. at the very least, the jury is still out on that question. in addition to that, I think you are vastly underestimating the costs of the lockdown. this is an area I am most familiar with. I believe the economic impact going forward is going to be devastating. far more devastating than anything the virus could ever have done. this is part of the reason why I am swayed towards the conspiracy argument. no sane government would be doing what is being done without exterior influence. | ||
| Rick | | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 21:21 |
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10034 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | No sane government etc... UNLESS YOU'RE WRONG. Which, given that the experts broadly say you are wrong, is surely a very real possibility. There are indeed some studies that argue that lockdowns don't work (the one with the most traction being the Ioannides one which, much in keeping with his track record during all this, seems to be massively flawed). There are many more that argue that they do. Compellingly, if you look at epidemic curves around the world and ask people to guess where the lockdown happened, it is very easy to get it right basically every time. Some argued, before, that this was because of herd immunity kicking in, but of course we now know for absolutely certain that they were wrong. Very few who work and research in public health seem uncertain about lockdowns as an effective method to bring numbers down; indeed, it's simply inconceivable that they could NOT work for this. Of course, this is going to drag on chat longer than it should because we're so far from an actual lockdown, still. | ||
| WILLSAN | | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 22:41 |
Trump will get another four years Member 126, 16707 posts SQ 160, BP 110, DL 225495.0 kgs @ 75kgs UnEq | Rick said:No sane government etc... UNLESS YOU'RE WRONG. Which, given that the experts broadly say you are wrong, is surely a very real possibility. WHY DO YOU FEEL THE NEED TO ALL CAPS A PATENTLY OBVIOUS STATEMENT? only a fool would exclude the possibility of being wrong. wouldnt he? there is a chance I am wrong about the virus coming from the lab in wuhan for example. a small chance granted, but a chance nonetheless. | ||
| matthewvc | | ... | 23-01-2021 @ 23:46 |
 ‘downsizing’ Member 5704, 3220 posts SQ 280, BP 210, DL 320810.0 kgs @ 96.3kgs UnEq | Rick said:That said, we completely should not be where we are. We should have locked down hard at the start and not unlocked until prevalence was near zero (probably only a few more weeks), with aggressive track trace and isolate. The places that did this have had much less time in lockdown and much better outcomes in every way So you're half right. The UK's response has been s**t and damaging. I can't agree with your apparent prescription, though. The difference between south east Asia and UK is staggering (all ASEAN countries have seen a handful of deaths). 6th jan last year the Thai authorities were temperature checking all Chinese entries into Suvarnabhumi airport; at the time it was pretty much an odd spike in pneumonia cases seen in wuhan and nowhere else. it didn’t take long for borders to be completely closed, harsh curfews and lockdowns. The Johnson regime otoh has done nothing but dither, delay, flown in the face of much of the science and all the while siphon billions of public money toward their inept chums. The end result? 100,000+ dead, the UK economy in the toilet and even now the Johnson regime is administering the vaccine in a way contrary to any other country with this untested long delay between doses. | ||
| Funky_monkey | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 07:24 |
 403 forbidden message Member 160, 5121 posts SQ 190, BP 137.5, DL 225552.5 kgs @ 86kgs UnEq | WILLSAN said: WHY DO YOU FEEL THE NEED TO ALL CAPS A PATENTLY OBVIOUS STATEMENT? only a fool would exclude the possibility of being wrong. wouldnt he? there is a chance I am wrong about the virus coming from the lab in wuhan for example. a small chance granted, but a chance nonetheless. I never knew you could patent a statement. Couple of new cases in North Cyprus = curfew and lockdown for that area. Nobody in or out, roadblocks, shops closed. | ||
| WILLSAN | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 08:36 |
Trump will get another four years Member 126, 16707 posts SQ 160, BP 110, DL 225495.0 kgs @ 75kgs UnEq | https://www.rt.com/op-ed/513141-covid-overall-mortality-normal/ Halfway through this winter of Covid, overall mortality is around normal for this time of year. Something doesn’t add up https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EsGjLmKXMAQQIo0?format=jpg&name=large does this graph fit with the fear porn being churned out by the media? | ||
| Rick | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 09:53 |
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10034 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | No it isn't. | ||
| WILLSAN | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 10:29 |
Trump will get another four years Member 126, 16707 posts SQ 160, BP 110, DL 225495.0 kgs @ 75kgs UnEq | Rick said:No it isn't. No it isn't etc... UNLESS YOU'RE WRONG. Which, given that the telegraphs figures seem to say you are wrong, is surely a very real possibility. | ||
| Rick | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 11:29 |
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10034 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | Age-adjusted mortality is up 8% on the five year average. Non-adjusted is more. That's huge. | ||
| Rick | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 11:35 |
I am a bench-only guy Member 3, 10034 posts SQ 185, BP 175, DL 235595.0 kgs @ 140kgs UnEq Administrator | And here's the chart from the latest PHE mortality survey. https://i.imgur.com/aDRbRqA.jpg | ||
| WILLSAN | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 12:08 |
Trump will get another four years Member 126, 16707 posts SQ 160, BP 110, DL 225495.0 kgs @ 75kgs UnEq | Rick said:And here's the chart from the latest PHE mortality survey. https://i.imgur.com/aDRbRqA.jpg where is that sourced from? | ||
| WILLSAN | | ... | 24-01-2021 @ 12:37 |
Trump will get another four years Member 126, 16707 posts SQ 160, BP 110, DL 225495.0 kgs @ 75kgs UnEq | so that charts deaths 'with the dominant circulating respiratory virus' which would explain the spike. we dont mass test for flu or record asymptomatic cases so any comparison with previous years is pointless. any number of those could be tests of hospital admissions where death was caused by something else or just people who died after previously testing positive of something completely unrelated. the telegraph chart shows overall mortality is around the five year average which would seem to be a better, if imperfect, measure as it cuts out the mass testing anomaly. | ||
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