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BillwestIcon...27-10-2020 @ 21:32 
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Post Edited: 27.10.2020 @ 21:34 PM by Billwest
dannyboy73 said:Its not the case though Bill. I know you hate the restrictive measures as much as any of us posting so this is not aimed at you per say but:
500k plus - This original outrageous claim was made on the back of poor science i.e worse case scenario model.
6 Months down the line, citing these figures just looks like scaremongering.
scare me once shame on you, scare me twice, Im an avid BBC follower.
i would just like to add that no nation regardless of measures has seen a death rate of 1% as predicted. not even close to 0.1% and this is regardless of measure between nations restrictive or non invasive which is the comparison and rational that millions would not have died if we had held our nerve and gone with as softer, less alarming model.

Tongue


I certainly do hate all these restrictions

You say the figure of 500k is outrageous, and based on poor science. To this I'd just say this
-At least to begin with, scientists did not know much about this infection, either in terms of how how fast it spread and what conditions it was most deadly. Most of these early estimates of mortality were just guesstimates.

- In the context of a govt taking appropriate measures, 500k is high. However, in the context of ideas of herd immunity that were bandied about at the time - and still seem to have some traction for some, it would seem - I'd say that it is pretty fair. Also, Bear in mind, this is not over. The Spanish flu epidemic, which people compare this to, lasted for 2 to 2 and a 1/2 years

-The UK, I think has 8 million people over 70 or with compromised immune systems, i.e the most at risk group. If the virus had really taken hold in care homes, if the elderly had not been told to self-isolate, this worst case scenario could have become reality
AdamTIcon...28-10-2020 @ 12:47 
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dannyboy73 said:Its not the case though Bill. I know you hate the restrictive measures as much as any of us posting so this is not aimed at you per say but:
500k plus - This original outrageous claim was made on the back of poor science i.e worse case scenario model.
6 Months down the line, citing these figures just looks like scaremongering.
scare me once shame on you, scare me twice, Im an avid BBC follower.
i would just like to add that no nation regardless of measures has seen a death rate of 1% as predicted. not even close to 0.1% and this is regardless of measure between nations restrictive or non invasive which is the comparison and rational that millions would not have died if we had held our nerve and gone with as softer, less alarming model.

Tongue


Good post
dannyboy73Icon...28-10-2020 @ 16:46 
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Post Edited: 28.10.2020 @ 16:53 PM by dannyboy73
No, i see where you got the info from sir

my point is really that the scientist indeed did not know what they were dealing with but to cover their arses went with an very pessimistic model at the start... scare tactics.

We now know that very few get seriously ill from this.

as for over 70s...they currently have a 94.6% chance of recovery (this includes underlying helth and people on their last legs) so in fact if you are fighting fit and over 70...most likely ok.

which when factored into the figures of projected death total if zero restriction were place... makes the 1 million more like 100k or less..
and dont forget that we have come a long way since March and if you are even slightly fit and have a fighting chance we now can manage covid with treatments. Sadly, some will not, but i would argue that these people are the individuals who who normally get wiped out by flu...but i understand, this is flu x 5 for immune repressed individuals.

Billwest said:
I certainly do hate all these restrictions
You say the figure of 500k is outrageous, and based on poor science. To this I'd just say this
-At least to begin with, scientists did not know much about this infection, either in terms of how how fast it spread and what conditions it was most deadly. Most of these early estimates of mortality were just guesstimates.
- In the context of a govt taking appropriate measures, 500k is high. However, in the context of ideas of herd immunity that were bandied about at the time - and still seem to have some traction for some, it would seem - I'd say that it is pretty fair. Also, Bear in mind, this is not over. The Spanish flu epidemic, which people compare this to, lasted for 2 to 2 and a 1/2 years
-The UK, I think has 8 million people over 70 or with compromised immune systems, i.e the most at risk group. If the virus had really taken hold in care homes, if the elderly had not been told to self-isolate, this worst case scenario could have become reality
BillwestIcon...28-10-2020 @ 18:36 
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Post Edited: 28.10.2020 @ 18:37 PM by Billwest
dannyboy73 said:No, i see where you got the info from sir
my point is really that the scientist indeed did not know what they were dealing with but to cover their arses went with an very pessimistic model at the start... scare tactics.
We now know that very few get seriously ill from this.
as for over 70s...they currently have a 94.6% chance of recovery (this includes underlying helth and people on their last legs) so in fact if you are fighting fit and over 70...most likely ok.
which when factored into the figures of projected death total if zero restriction were place... makes the 1 million more like 100k or less..
and dont forget that we have come a long way since March and if you are even slightly fit and have a fighting chance we now can manage covid with treatments. Sadly, some will not, but i would argue that these people are the individuals who who normally get wiped out by flu...but i understand, this is flu x 5 for immune repressed individuals.



I admire your optimism, I really do. If the UK had been prepared for this virus, If the government could have had a consistent policy, if we had a test and trace system worth a light in place and ready to go in March, if the NHS had had spare capacity to absorb the number of coronavirus hospitalisations, then it is possible that deaths could have been kept to 100,000 with zero restrictions. However, NONE of those things were in place, and still aren't as far as I can see.

In April 5,000 people (give or take) were dying a week. Without lockdown that weekly figure was only going to get higher, but assuming it had miraculously stayed the same and not gone higher, that is still 30 weeks x 5,000 = 150k. More likely 250-500k. The only thing that got it back under control was the restrictions that were introduced. Without them, god knows where we would be now.

Don't think I'm trying to justify government policy here, they are a bunch of useless ar****les, but to imagine we can combat this virus without restrictions is sheer fantasy. Hopefully these will become less with time, and I hope f**king soon, I'm sick of working from home.
RickIcon...28-10-2020 @ 18:38 
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Actually, the current survival figures factor out at an IFR of about 0.5% with our demographics. So, assuming no decline in care, if left to run we should expect roughly 0.5% of roughly 80% of roughly 67 million dead - about 270,000 with no health system collapse, 2 to 4 times that likely with. At the time of that projection, the IFR was considerably higher, but we're doing much better now with treatments. It really wasn't a bad estimate, we just decided not to go that way. Yet.

Of course, there may be something that means that not 80% of people will get it. But, with the notable exception of Ioannidis, who seems to have been claiming since about April that we were on the edge of the disease burning out (in the US), not many epidemiologists or virologists seem to find any reason other than pure optimism to think so.

Of course, if we spread it out to avoid systemic collapse and keep it down to that level (so still significant distancing or occasional lockdown), we're only looking at that 270k, which is only about half a year's normal death rate, and there'll be some overlap with that normal cohort. You may feel that's acceptable. Plus a million or so spending time in hospital (current hospitalisation rates 2.5%), and a couple million more with serious quality of life impacts lasting, well, we're still counting how long, aren't we.

Or we could try to do something about it. (Preferably something sane and coherent, Mr Johnson.)
dannyboy73Icon...28-10-2020 @ 20:21 
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So, as you are likely aware, they are now saying that the antibodies have a half life and therefore herd immunity is not viable.

If this really is the case, endless lockdowns, never ending restrictions and what the hell will happen with the economy(s). and a wicked never ending flu for those in poor health to worry about.

What a show.
BigMaccaIcon...28-10-2020 @ 20:29 
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dannyboy73 said:So, as you are likely aware, they are now saying that the antibodies have a half life and therefore herd immunity is not viable.

If this really is the case, endless lockdowns, never ending restrictions and what the hell will happen with the economy(s). and a wicked never ending flu for those in poor health to worry about.

What a show.

This doesn't rule out an effective vaccine.
There are several types of antibodies and then there are other components to our immune system.

Also, even if protection from a vaccine is relativity short lived, there are always boosters.
dannyboy73Icon...28-10-2020 @ 20:34 
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Post Edited: 28.10.2020 @ 20:43 PM by dannyboy73
It doesnt, but we are getting mixed messages about the possibility of a vaccine. some scientist say soon...every week and others claim if we do get one, and only if - it may take years to develop.

We seen to have been holing out for one since April, shant be holding my breath but as you say, we can hope. It would be great to offer it anyone in the risk groups.

BigMacca said:
This doesn't rule out an effective vaccine.
There are several types of antibodies and then there are other components to our immune system.
Also, even if protection from a vaccine is relativity short lived, there are always boosters.
BigMaccaIcon...28-10-2020 @ 20:45 
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dannyboy73 said:It doesnt, but we are getting mixed messages about the possibility of a vaccine. some scientist say soon...every week and others claim if we do get one, and only if - it may take years to develop.
We seen to have been holing out for one since April, shant be holding my breath but as you say, we can hope.

Yup, there are no guarantees.

The best short term solution now might just be BoJo's 5 minute home test that we all take daily and venture out into the world more or less as normal if we test negative.

"May you live in interesting times..."
Wayne_CowdreyIcon...28-10-2020 @ 20:48 
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Overheard today... "If soap and water kill it why can't they make a vaccine?"
WILLSANIcon...28-10-2020 @ 21:01 
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PeteHodgsonIcon...28-10-2020 @ 21:10 
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Wayne_Cowdrey said:Overheard today... "If soap and water kill it why can't they make a vaccine?"


Maybe that's what Trump was thinking.
Does seem odd that it can be killed so easily yet it's so serious
BigMaccaIcon...28-10-2020 @ 21:23 
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PeteHodgson said:
Maybe that's what Trump was thinking.
Does seem odd that it can be killed so easily yet it's so serious

Soap and water are pretty lethal to HIV as well.

It just turns out that it's hard to wash your blood and general insides with soap and water whilst you're still using them
RickIcon...28-10-2020 @ 22:03 
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Natural herd immunity was never viable. You can tell that because we have, as far as I know, never achieved herd immunity to any disease - except via vaccines.

Daily testing would be effective (provided we support people to isolate, so they actually do it). Decent test and trace would do the same job cheaper, with the same caveat. If we'd done that we could be sitting watching the s**tshow kicking off in France with smugness, rather than treating it as a preview.
RickIcon...28-10-2020 @ 22:04 
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BigMacca said:
Soap and water are pretty lethal to HIV as well.
It just turns out that it's hard to wash your blood and general insides with soap and water whilst you're still using them


Yeah. Turns out detergents don't just kill viruses...

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