US Presidency

dannyboy73 said:you MISS understand.
the thing we should be discussing is that out of 770 young people zero require hoisptalisation and therefore this whole pandemic has been grossly exagerated.

dannyboy73 said:no not at all. see this is the sort of fear message killing small business.
not unless the pensioners you are refering to were on their last legs with serious health issues.
if you are talking about healthy 65s. you need to look at the data. more chance of death in a car crash.

Rick said:
This does not follow, for the reasons adequately explained by me earlier and many others elsewhere. This particular story is a GOOD NEWS story: lots of cases that were found and prevented from spreading further, to people who would, in some cases, have been less lucky.
The obvious comparison here is the now notorious wedding party in the US in mid lockdown, unusual because of how well traced the effects were. Several people ended up dying. None of them were actually at the wedding that was the superspreading event.
As for me being paid to spread an agenda: don't be so f**king ridiculous. This is NOT a "fear agenda". Did we learn nothing from the "project fear" bulls**t last time? Once again, it is the overwhelming worldwide expert consensus, and the fact that you prefer comforting lies from fringe platforms is not anybody's problem but yours. Unless, of course, you act recklessly and infect the innocent.

IrishMarc said:https://i.ibb.co/dsN6XxL/Screen-Shot-2020-10-13-at-17-46-19.png

Cases per million for the last month.

Literally every expert I heard talking about this at the start said

- Lockdown was a delaying tactic
- Lockdown to suppress a peak basically ensured a second peak
- In leiu of a vaccine you can either lockdown till there is no virus in the country and control the borders or you can live with the Virus

The only countries that have dealt with it reasonably IMO are South Asian countries that locked down hard/fast and used effective track and trace or New zeland who got the virus out of the comunity and then controlled the borders.

Sweden are interesting and will be born out through time if it was the right approach since they theortically will have shouldered the brunt of it now. Where as we will be in and out of peaks until we either get a vaccine or just let it run while trying to mitigate the impact.

Germany are very interesting they seem to have very little deaths in comparassion to other Major UK econimies and the US isn't anywhere near as bad as it's made out to be it's just f**king massive compared to european countries.

Masks etc are all grand for mitigation but your real goals should be isolating and quarantining cases, controlling the borders and keeping it suppressed in your population if you are trying to control the spread and keep it under control.

Which we made a complete and utter c**t out of.

The UK seemed tee'd up to go the Sweden route and then we shat the bed.

Rick said:Danny are you saying I was rude? Because you, last night, suggested I was a paid traitor... I think my response was surprisingly mild, under the circumstances.

Once again, your position is not moderate in terms of the scientific advice OR the views of the general public (I posted the polling data in an attempt to make this point).

The problem with the Sweden model is it didn't work, even in Sweden, which is massively better suited to it than we are. Compared to their similar neighbours, they had massively more deaths, and as bad or worse economic impact. The idea it might start to look good down the line supposes that they are close to herd immunity, which they aren't.

The point of lockdown was
- most critically, to stop hospitals collapsing (and it looks like we need to do that again, because we didn't manage to do the next bit..)
- use the time to sort out functional test and trace, and a system to support people when isolating so that they actually do it. We didn't do this, because the government were too busy trying to shovel money to their staggeringly incompetent mates (at least, that's my read).

The countries that have done well had successful TTI programs in place before they opened back up. We still haven't got one now, which is why things are going so badly.

Many of the actions the government are currently taking are stupid. They cause suffering for little or no benefit. But they're not quite as stupid as doing nothing. (Doesn't mean we should be doing them, though. The SAGE advice from last month has now been published; it offers clear analysis of every sensible option, in terms of impact of the virus and collateral impacts. We are doing very little of what we should be, and plenty of nonsense.)

(There is nothing here I haven't posted before, but it's still true and apparently still needs saying.)